Employment Forecast: Employment Forecast November 2011

PDF - 3.37 MB

The MyCareer Employment Forecast has provided an accurate picture of the current and future Australian employment market since 2003. The biannual report covers the national, mainland states and professional and managerial markets as well as key industries. In this edition, five new sections have been added in response to reader feedback. Three provide fresh insight into the overall employment scene - the Australian Salary Review, the Candidate Environment Index (Australia), and the Candidate Environment Index (States). The other new sections are at industry level - Human Resources and Recruitment and Media and Marketing. The Candidate Environment Index (CEI) has been introduced by MyCareer specifically to help recruiters better understand the candidate market. It measures the strength of the candidate environment by combining employment intentions, full time jobs changes and job vacancies.

Broadly speaking, the November 2011 edition of the MyCareer Employment Forecast finds that as the world awaits the outcome of the European sovereign debt crisis and the subsequent market response, a mood of caution has swept across the Australian job market. Although the growth in jobs to August 2011 was very solid, with 293,000 jobs added in the year, there are clear signs of caution. Job vacancies have started to ease and there are indicators that employers are taking longer to fill positions. Business confidence has also fallen since the start of the year, although it is still well above recessionary levels. The Candidate Environment Index is already indicating a softening after a very strong 2010, when candidates were in short supply. Clearly, the main risk at the moment is that the European community will be unable to resolve the debt issues, leading the world into a recession. However, there are five factors that point to Australia being in a strong position even if this were to occur:

Australia has very low government debt, so there is room to provide more stimulus if required.
Our interest rates are quite high and the Reserve Bank could cut interest rates if required.
China and India are still growing vigorously, providing strong demand for our resources.
Australia now has a much more flexible workforce, providing opportunity for labour supply adjustments - such as reduced hours of work, taking leave, reduced profit sharing, etc - enabling companies to adjust to new demand conditions.
Our banks are very strong, ensuring the stability of our financial system.

In terms of overall outlook, this cautionary approach has been translated into lower business confidence and this, in turn, is impacting on the job market. With employment intentions lower, albeit remaining positive - up 6.6 in June 2011 - the jobs outlook is positive with jobs forecast to grow by 1.3% by year ended August 2012. This is a slower pace than Australia has currently experienced and at this level we will experience a small increase in unemployment.